Demand for air ticket in the Brazilian economy: a co-integration analysis (original title: Demanda por ticket aéreo na economia brasileira: uma análise de co-integração)

The air transport demand is directly related to economic cycles (domestic and international), to the currency fluctuations and exchange, and to the performance of economies. The airline industry performance can be used as a measure of the economic heating level. This sector is highly capital intensive and energy based, being an essential tool in a country’s production chain, as it relates different areas. This paper seeks to determine whether there is a long-term equilibrium between the demand for airline tickets, its prices, and macroeconomic indicators – such as GDP and fuel prices in Brazil. The analysis focuses on the demand of airlines TAM, Gol (and VARIG) and WebJet, which together represent about 85% of domestic passenger transportation. Results states that economic growth is one of the key factors on airport infrastructure capacity pressure, however the long run price parameter has a low intensity, which reflects the business travel passenger type dominance in Brazilian air transportation.

In Journal of Transport Literature (Original: Revista de Literatura dos Transportes). Vol. 5, number 3, pp. 64 – 88.